Prediction

I decided to finally get this thing rolling and commit to it now, because I want to have something publicly on record before November 2.

I think Bush is going to win... big. I think he'll win the popular vote by at least 3 percent, and the electoral college by at least 100 electoral votes. Maybe that doesn't sound like a landslide to you, but I think that's a pretty significant margin in a race that everybody says is going to be "extremely tight." I make this prediction not as a reaction to any poll, because I'm generally a skeptic of polls. I've been saying this for months, before any polls started showing up. I've said the same thing through the highs and lows of both candidates. It's just a gut feeling I have about how the American people really think.

I'm under no illusions about the general popularity of George W. Bush. I'm fully aware that a significant chunk of the country completely loathes the man, and another significant chunk is ambivalent at best. But when it comes time to actually cast votes in a time of war, I just don't believe that most Americans will want to trade him in for the likes of John Kerry. No matter how much some people may dislike Bush, I just don't think enough of them will be able to cast a ballot for what is easily the worst presidential candidate since Dukakis. If Hillary had summoned the guts to run this year, I'd be worried. If the Democrats had nominated any other candidate in the field, (even Howard Dean) they'd have a real shot at this. But they nominated a guy who just can't be trusted in a time of war. If this was 2000, it might have worked. But not this year.

No need for in-depth analysis of all that right now. I just wanted to throw that out there first thing. Bush wins big on November 2. It probably won't be the last time that I stick my neck out on the chopping block...