Backtrack

I should do my math homework before posting. After doing some studying and playing with electoral vote maps, I'm going to have to soften my prediction that Bush wins by 100 electoral votes. That just doesn't appear possible, even if he picks off several blue states, as I think he will. Kerry can keep it closer than 100 just by winning California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and most of the northeast.

I still think it will be a comfortable win with almost none of the drama of 2000. I still think Bush will win a couple blue states that nobody expects him to, like maybe Pennsylvania or Michigan. And I still think he takes the popular vote by 3 percent or better. But a 100-electoral vote margin would really require a dream scenario.

I'm new at this, but I will learn to rely less on emotion and more on fact and logic. That's not in my nature. :-)

UPDATE: The LA Times has a cool electoral tracker map. (Right side of the page, about halfway down.) Try it out and see what you get. Right now, I've got it at 296-242.